Aim: Analyze vulnerabilities of agriculture livelihoods at the provincial level; identify key risks, root causes, and adaptation strategies.

Approach: Define locations with similar biophysical and socio-economic characteristics as ‘typologies’ using PCA & K-means clustering.

Area of Interest: South Sulawesi province

Unit of Analysis: Sub-district (Kecamatan)

• The second lowest household density after rural areas.

• Limited accessibility to land-based livelihoods.

• Economy predominantly relies on marine resources and maritime transport.

• Inadequate health, education facilities, and market access.

• Driest area in South Sulawesi with potential freshwater scarcity.

• High drought indices with significant predicted rainfall decrease.

• Over 40% of the population is underprivileged.

• Mostly situated in warm lowlands; a 1°C temperature rise could be impactful.

• Rural areas in South Sulawesi with the lowest household density.

• Mountainous regions overlapping with protected areas, last bastions of unique Wallacean biodiversity.

• High rainfall, low drought vulnerability (AI = 0.3).

• In close proximity to forests, deforestation sites, and areas previously affected by fires.

• Furthest from plantation concessions and limited road and river access.

• Minimal changes in rainfall but the highest rate of temperature increase.

• Highest erosion risk; lowest flood risk.

• Almost 50% of the population falls in the bottom 40% economic bracket.

• Closest to plantations, forests, and deforestation sites.

• Furthest from previously burned areas in Sulawesi.

• Medium household density per sub-district.

• Moderate flood risk.

• Moderate extent of irrigation.

• Second highest risk of erosion and landslides after inland areas.

• Highest rate of deforestation.

• High risk of rainfall reduction, though not classified as arid.

• About 1/3 of the population falls in the bottom 40% economic bracket.

• Highest arable land coverage, with predominant irrigated areas.

• Highest smallholder land ownership.

• Second closest proximity to burned areas after urban regions.

• Second highest access to roads and rivers following urban areas.

• Second highest household density per district after urban regions; similar trend observed in health and education facilities.

• Least proximity to forests due to limited forest cover.

• Primarily located in lowlands; a temperature rise of 1.41°C significantly impacts this already warm region.

• Expected to experience the most significant rainfall decrease (-84.31 mm) among typologies, making it the most drought-prone.

• Flood risks during the rainy season, aggravated by minimal remaining forest cover.

• High household density, with over a third belonging to the bottom 40% economic bracket.

• Smallest area coverage (3%) with least arable land.

• Lowest smallholder land ownership, following island regions.

• Second closest proximity to burned areas after semi-urban regions.

• Best access to roads and rivers.

• Highest household density per district.

• Easy access to health facilities, supermarkets, universities, and hospitals. However, each unit caters to a large number of households.

• Only 15.1% of households fall within the bottom 40% economic bracket.

• Warmest current temperatures compared to other regions; a rise of 1.43°C significantly impacts underprivileged local residents.

• High flood risk, given many urban areas are near rivers.

• Heavily reliant on food supplies from other regions.

1 – Most Vulnerable: Located closest to oil palm plantations and factories, mining areas, and roads; has the largest shrub area per village; furthest from deforestation and has the lowest deforestation rate; has the smallest percentage of forested areas per village; high population.

2 – Highly Vulnerable: Located closest to burnt areas; has the largest percentage of oil palm area per village; situated nearer to oil palm concession areas and rubber factories; has the largest percentage of water bodies (lakes, rivers); has a lower deforestation rate but is located closer to deforestation areas; high population.

3 – Moderately Vulnerable: Located closest to rivers; has a larger percentage of oil palm area per village; situated slightly farther from oil palm companies and mining areas; has a larger percentage of forested and shrub areas per village; medium population.

4 – Less Vulnerable: Closest to deforestation areas and has the highest deforestation rate; located furthest from rivers; most distant from burnt areas; slightly closer to forested areas; slightly farther from oil palm concession areas; low population.

5 – Least Vulnerable: Has the largest percentage of forested areas per village; most remote; has the smallest percentage of shrub areas and oil palm areas per village; located closer to rivers and forested areas; has the lowest village population.

Typology 1: High fire occurrences in protected areas, both with and without drainage. Lowest rates of deforestation, degradation, and plantation expansion. Low population and poverty, closest to cities with easy access.

Typology 2: High fire occurrences in cultivated areas, both with and without drainage. High deforestation rate, low degradation, and minimal plantation expansion. Highest population and poverty, near cities with easy access.

Typology 3: Fires occur in both cultivated and protected areas, irrespective of drainage. Highest rates of deforestation, degradation, and plantation expansion. Low population and poverty, furthest from cities with challenging access.

Typology 4: Most frequent fires in protected areas, regardless of drainage. Low deforestation, high degradation, and significant plantation expansion. Low population and poverty, far from cities with very limited access.

Typology 5: Most frequent fires in cultivated areas, irrespective of drainage. Low deforestation, high degradation, and significant plantation expansion. Low population and poverty, remote from cities with challenging access.